Markets remain volatile and skittish, with the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices remaining the focal points. At the same time, Australia faces the sub plot of an increasingly hawkish RBA, This report explores the implications of the war in Iran for the global oil market and economic performance, as well as the upcoming decisions of the US Fed and the RBA.

The US-Israel attack on Iran looks, by some measure, to be the most significant of recent geopolitical upheavals that have included Trump’s interventions in Venezuela and Greenland. This report explores the potential fallout of the latest conflict in the Middle East, including its impact upon the global energy market, equities and fixed-income assets, as well as broader geopolitical implications.

Last week’s January CPI data reinforces the view that Australian inflation remains too high. Market pricing for a hike at the May 5th RBA board meeting looks fair and reasonable in our view. This report explores the prospects for inflation in Australia and the RBA’s corresponding response, as well as the impact on investment markets.

Conditions have been evolving quickly this year, including an improving outlook for international markets outside the US, and investor repositioning could drive further outperformance. Last year performance was underpinned by a revaluation of these markets relative to the US, where uncertainty increased, and this year they may be driven by better growth. 

We believe that we are on the cusp of an acceleration in structural growth accompanied by relatively low inflation due to the productivity benefits of AI. In this report, we explore the macroeconomic outlook for the US, as well as the prospects for tech equities in light of the surge in AI adoption and its impacts on the software sector.

The RBA raised its policy rate this week as expected but indicated more concern about inflation than previously. While the reaction of bonds and equities was limited, after earlier weakness over recent months, both could face further near-term risks. In this report we consider the factors that may influence interest rates in the coming months and the prospects for domestic markets.

Equity markets have made a solid start to 2026, extending the gains seen in 2025, despite a spike in geopolitical uncertainty linked to the increasingly volatile actions of the Trump administration. In this report, we examine global macro trends in 2026 and their implications for asset markets both in Australia and around the world.

Last year was another strong one for global equities, with gains broadening beyond the US and more widespread across markets. While risks persist, prospects still look encouraging going into this year, and in this report, we set out our expectations and consider scope for continued broad-based performance in more depth.